The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established by the UN in 1988, recently released a report describing the effects of global temperatures rising 1.5 C degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century.
At first, this doesn’t sound like a big deal. After all, global temperatures have already increased 1 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. What difference does a measly half-degree make?
According to the report, however, that half-degree is far more significant than it sounds, for it will exacerbate current conditions. People are already suffering from the effects of heat waves, coastal floods, and droughts caused by climate change. Global temperatures increasing by that half-degree will increase the risks for tens of millions more people. Similarly, that half-degree could doom both coral reefs and Arctic summer sea ice to oblivion.
An increase by another degree in average global temperatures would be even worse. Extreme heat, for example, will become more widespread. Severe heatwaves, like the European heatwave of 2007, would occur roughly every five years. An increase in global temperatures by another half-degree would see roughly 14 percent of the world’s population affected by such a heat wave. If the global temperatures increase by a full degree, a staggering 37 percent of the world’s population will be affected. People living in the tropics would experience the greatest increase in “unusually hot” days.
Similarly, drought will affect increasing numbers of people. If the average global temperature increases by 1.5 degrees above the average temperature of the 19th century, at least 350 million people living in cities will be affected by drought. That number jumps to over 411 million in the event of a 2-degree increase.
Increasing global temperatures won’t hurt just humans. Plants, insects, and vertebrates will all see their ranges shrink as temperatures soar – and the first two will be particularly hard hit. A 1.5 increase will see 8 percent of plants, 6 percent of insects, and 4 percent of vertebrates losing at least 50 percent of their ranges. An increase of two degrees will see 16 percent of plants, 18 percent of insects, and 8 percent of vertebrates losing over 50 percent of their ranges. In other words, increasing global temperatures will exacerbate habitat loss for many organisms, and some of those organisms will go extinct.
The report estimates that average global temperatures will increase by 1.5 degrees sometime between 2030 and 2052 – within the lifetimes of many people alive now. Barring a massive push to phase out fossil fuels and remove carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere, the average global temperatures will increase by two degrees by the end of this century.
